EXISTING HOME SALES SURPRISE WITH POSITIVE GROWTH IN JULY. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, existing-home sales in July increased 2.0% month-over-month and 0.8% year-over-year. Inventory levels remained steady, and price appreciation has moderated. However, broader context is essential: the existing-home market has remained largely stagnant since its contraction in 2022. Notably, the only meaningful increases (outside of seasonal increases) have occurred when mortgage rates temporarily fell below 6.5%. When rates rose again, demand softened. As a result, 2024 began with a low baseline for sales, and we anticipated that year-over-year comparisons would eventually turn positive. Full story from HOUSINGWIRE →
- Why this matters: For homeowners contemplating a sale, this presents a strategically opportune moment to prepare. Buyer interest is resurging, with many prospective purchasers poised to re-enter the market as conditions improve. It’s also important to recognize the increasingly hyperlocal nature of today’s real estate environment. Unlike three years ago, when market dynamics were relatively consistent across regions, current conditions vary significantly by geography. As a result, localized insights and tailored strategies are more critical than ever — an area where your expertise can deliver meaningful value to clients.
FANNIE MAE: AUGUST 2025 ECONOMIC AND HOUSING OUTLOOK. The Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group forecasts total home sales to reach 4.74 million units in 2025, a slight adjustment from last month’s projection of 4.85 million units. Existing-home sales are expected to total 4.09 million units, up modestly from 4.06 million units in 2024. Mortgage rates are projected to end 2025 at 6.5%, declining to 6.1% by year-end 2026. Meanwhile, purchase and refinance originations are projected to reach $1.85 trillion and $2.26 trillion, respectively, reflecting a cautiously optimistic outlook for housing market activity. Full story from FANNIEMAE →
- Why this matters: This represents a “steady, not splashy” market baseline. Encourage buyers to develop actionable plans that aren’t reliant on dramatic shifts in interest rates. Scenario planning is key — illustrate affordability at current rates and at modestly lower levels, while incorporating strategies such as buydowns and lender credits to mitigate potential rate increases. For your long-term business planning, anticipate a stable-volume environment and focus on refining core competencies in pricing, negotiation, and financing to stay competitive and deliver value.
POWELL APPEARS TO SIGNAL RATE CUTS TO EVOLVING CIRCUMSTANCES. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted last week that “the balance of risks appears to be shifting” in the market: inflation remains elevated while downside risks to the labor market are increasing. Given the Fed’s dual mandate of maintaining price stability and full employment, markets are interpreting these comments as a signal that a rate cut could be on the table as early as September, contingent on forthcoming economic data.
Powell also reiterated that housing-related inflation continues to trend downward. The recent softening in housing market indicators, including deceleration in home prices, is likely to exert downward pressure on inflation metrics. This is a potentially dovish signal for future monetary policy, especially considering housing has been a primary driver of inflation over the past two years. Full story from EYEONHOUSING →
- Why this matters: You don’t need to predict the Federal Reserve’s next move; you need to interpret it for your clients. When buyer clients ask “what does this mean for me?” keep the guidance clear and actionable: advise rate-sensitive buyers to be prepared with rate-lock strategies. For sellers, emphasize that market uncertainty can drive urgency. In this environment, strategic timing and pricing remain critical to maximizing visibility and outcomes.
SINGLE-FAMILY STARTS EDGE HIGHER BUT AFFORDABILITY CHALLENGES PERSIST. In July, housing starts rose 5.2% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.43 million units, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. This growth was largely driven by a 9.9% increase in multifamily starts. Single-family starts posted a 2.8% gain for the month but remain down 4.2% year-to-date. The single-family construction pipeline continues to narrow: with 621,000 units currently under construction, down 1.0% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, marking the lowest level since early 2021. Builders are navigating persistent affordability challenges and supply-side constraints, including labor shortages, elevated material costs, and regulatory inefficiencies, which continue to weigh on production capacity. Full story from EYEONHOUSING →
- Why this matters: New supply relief remains uneven across markets. In some areas, increased multi-family development is helping to ease rental pressure and reduce competition for entry-level buyers. In others, limited single-family starts continue to constrain resale inventory. To navigate this dynamic landscape, take a localized approach. For active buyers, create side-by-side comparisons that evaluate new-build timelines, rate buydown incentives, and monthly cost versus comparable resale options. When the numbers align with their financial goals, act decisively.
THE BOTTOM LINE: Markets reward preparation, not perfection. Your value lies in helping clients navigate complexity with clarity. Focus on simplifying decision-making by emphasizing the fundamentals that drive outcomes: strategic pricing, compelling presentation, and proactive communication. In a fluid environment, calm and informed leadership is a distinct competitive advantage.